There’s nothing terribly unexpected about this year’s crop of Oscar nominations. There are a few surprises, of course, some of which are called snubs (more on that later), and some simply indicate the more international flavor the Academy has taken on these past few years.

Best Picture

Definitely nothing unexpected here. The usual suspects of Oppenheimer (which will win) and Barbie are here, plus Killers of the Flower Moon and The Holdovers. Maestro deserves to be in the mix, but will likely turn out to be even less honored than Bradley Cooper’s A Star is Born was a few years ago. To keep things short, I’ll just say that the other nominations in this category are a tip of the hat to foreign films.

Best Director

This is where the word “snub” comes in. I do think the word is occasionally legitimate, as Hollywood often chooses to not like someone for some reason. But that is neither the case with Barbie director Greta Gerwig nor Margot Robbie (who played Barbie, but received a nomination as one of the producers). Both women are well respected in the industry and have had Oscar nominations before, and I don’t sense any blowback because of who they are or the great success that had with that film. Those thinking of sexism need to be reminded of the Argo “snub” years ago when male Ben Affleck failed to get a nomination for directing what won the Best Picture Oscar, and the fact that one of the directors taking “Gerwig’s place” is Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall.

The “givens” were Nolan for Oppenheimer (who will win), Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon, and Lanthimos for Poor Things. For the other two, see the last sentence in the Best Picture paragraph above.

Best Actress

I’m glad the “perennially nominated but never winning” Annette Benning got a nod here, as her performance was dramatically and technically outstanding in Nyad. Lily Gladstone will probably win for Killers of the Flower Moon, for mostly good but also some virtue signaling reasons—an irresistible combination for the Academy. I was hoping this would be Carey Mulligan’s year for Maestro, but she will have to wait. Emma Stone might have won had the voting been done earlier, but she already has an Oscar, and the Anointed One is definitely Gladstone this year. German actress Sandra Hüller starred in both Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, making it her year in some ways. Perhaps she will be a future winner.  The only big one missing here is the brilliant Natalie Portman, who did such good work in May December that she made the impossible look effortless, and hence a bit more invisible than it should have been.

Best Actor

This one is pretty much a lock for Cillian Murphy, who is benefiting from the tsunami of love and respect for Oppenheimer. I thought his recessive presence and the fact that the film focuses on what happened to him as opposed to what he did would turn off some members of the Academy. But the only competition I see is with the much-loved Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers. The rest are just signs of respect for the performances and the actors themselves. The combination surprise/snub is Leonardo DiCaprio for Killers of the Flower Moon. He was considered a lock until just recently, but his omission makes room for some deserving newbies.

Best Supporting Actress

This is a motley if well deserving crew. Emily Blunt is receiving well-earned respect for her acting here, but she is also benefiting from Oppenheimer love. Jodie Foster’s nomination is another sign of respect for a performance and a performer, but as she has two Oscars already, and because Nyad’s nominations are considered the win, she will come up short here. Da’Vine Joy Randolph has been cleaning up the other film awards for her work in The Holdovers, and that doesn’t seem to be slowing down; she’s set to win. America Ferrera is an actress I respect greatly, but I fear her nomination was a combination of Barbie love, love for the performer, and ultimately, love for her one big monologue.

Best Supporting Actor

I loved seeing Sterling K. Brown get some respect for his acting (here, in American Fiction), though he hasn’t a chance to win. Same with Robert DeNiro for Killers of the Flower Moon. It’s a sign of the greatness of his performance that in such a strong year, the two-time Oscar legend still gets a nomination. So it’s between Robert Downey, Jr. (the probably winner), and Barbie’s Ryan Gosling. If it weren’t for Oppenheimer love and the fact that Downey has helped bring billions into the film world, I would say that love of Gosling and his performance might win the day. It still might if things shift in his direction, but I’m hoping and still believing that Downey gets it. (I keep hearing stories of people who don’t know that the actor playing that part is Downey, Jr. until the end credits; he does disappear into the role with nary a Tony Stark snark.) Missing? Charles Melton from May December.

Best Cinematography

Lots of excellent work here, and the nominations seem deserved across the board. I’m glad Matthew Libatique was cited for his work on Maestro, which was stunning, and that Rodrigo Prieto was recognized for Killers of the Flower Moon. But it’s Oppenheimer’s year, and there is no more worthy nominee here than Hoyte van Hoytema for his work on this film.

Film Editing

I can’t imagine that Oppenheimer’s Jennifer Lame won’t win for her work on a film that so intelligently and deftly works with its editing. The other nominations are just nice to have for the recipients.

Best International Feature

The joke among many film folks is that if it’s about the Holocaust, it will win, especially with documentaries. So the non-documentary drama The Zone of Interest has that historical energy coming at it, but will win because of its particular focus and overall quality. Besides, it’s nominated for five Oscars in total, including Best Picture.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Of course Oppenheimer is getting swept into the mix here, but I think this might be the one win for Maestro. Extraordinary work, especially with the close-ups.

Best Original Score

Seriously, another nom for John Williams, just because he’s John Williams? But the big tension here is between Killers of the Flower Moon’s Robbie Robertson and Oppenheimer’s Ludwig Göransson.  Göransson has his film’s momentum behind him, and has that strong advantage. But Robertson just passed away a few months ago after a long career partnering with Scorsese, making the film his swan song. Plus, he is the first indigenous person nominated in this category, and the Academy loves bestowing awards like this.

All for now….