This year’s Oscar show is likely to be a snooze fest. There might be a surprise here and there, but most folks feel that the awards are already set in stoneSo in the interest of time, and with the reality that I don’t much of that time, here are my thoughts in a Cliff Notes fashion—meaning I’m not listing all the nominees, but just putting my predictions and associated thoughts out there.

Best Picture

Oppenheimer

Best Director

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Best Actress

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

(Possible upset person: Emma Stone, Poor Things)

(Note: Natalie Portman should be on this list for May December.)

Best Actor

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

(Possible upset person: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers—please, God no. I love Giamatti, but not this year and not for this performance.)

Best Supporting Actress

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

(Possible upset person: Ryan Gosling, Barbie)

Best Animated Film

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse

(Possible upset film: The Boy and the Heron)

Best Cinematography

Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer

Best Costume Design

Jacqueline Durran, Barbie

Best Film Editing

Oppenheimer

Best Production Design

Poor Things

(Possible upset film: Barbie)

Best Score

Oppenheimer

(Possible but unlikely upset film: Killers of the Flower Moon)

Best Song

“What Was I Made For?”, Barbie

Written by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell

Note: This will be the second Oscar win for the pair, after 2022’s “No Time to Die”. Billie is all of 22 years old. Expect that this Oscar will not be her last.

(The “God help us” possible upset song: “I’m Just Ken,” which probably provided the silliest and most fun moment of the film, but which doesn’t come close to “What Was I Made For?” as a piece of music. Let’s hope the Academy doesn’t do a “Talk to the Animals” here.)

Best Sound

Oppenheimer

Best Documentary Feature Film

20 Days in Mariupol

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction

(Note: The Academy wants to recognize this film, and this category gives them a legitimate opportunity.)

Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

(See note immediately above, especially since the Best International Film winner will NOT be Anatomy of a Fall).

Best Visual Effects

Godzilla Minus One

Note: I don’t understand this one, as I don’t think it should even have been nominated. But it was a surprise hit, so there’s that….

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Maestro

Note: For several reasons, the Academy doesn’t like/doesn’t get this film, but this category provides a legit reason to award something to it.)

Best International Film

The Zone of Interest

Best Animated Short

“WAR IS OVER” Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

(Note: See title for why this will win.)

Best Documentary Short

The ABC’s of Book Banning

(Note: See title for why this will win. It will also be the one film to scratch the itch of current political correctness, so desperately desired by the Academy for their yearly virtue signaling.)

Best Live Action Short

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Final note: This has been a surprisingly rich year for films. Many will be classics, and many that didn’t get nominations, or did and will lose, will be looked at closely and reevaluated in the future: May December’s three central performances; what Carrie Mulligan does in Maestro (nominated) and Margot Robbie in Barbie (not nominated): Greta Gerwig’s accomplishments with Barbie, Leonardo DiCaprio’s work in Killers of the Flower Moon; Asteroid City. The one thing I can predict with hope, though, is that the winners in all categories will at least be worthy of honor.