Note: This entire article is dedicated to Steve Hogan.

My first thought on this year’s Oscar show is that it will be the least watched in a long time. There are no big points of interest, except perhaps a win for Demi Moore for Best Actress. That’s of some interest to those who have followed her personal and professional trajectory. But even that nomination is part of a film that few people have seen (The Substance), and many have understandably stayed away from.

There is also no big film vying for Best Picture that has captured the public’s interest. Last year, we had Barbie vs. Oppenheimer. Yes, Wicked was a big financial success, but it hasn’t done well in any category at any of the year’s awards, and there are enough issues with it that it won’t win the big prize. As for the rest of the nominees, the timing of many of the films’ releases, and the fact that some are essentially just “streamer” movies, has worked against them. Lastly, some of the films combine a mixture of languages and outré subject matter that have served to limit their audiences. As of this writing, the only film that has any cultural buzz is Conclave (yes, because of the pope’s illness), but all this has came after the nomination, as did Conclave’s somewhat surprising win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards). So, bottom line: No front runner, and no film that has the captured the average moviegoer’s interest.

So, I don’t care enough this year to do a complete predictions list, but here are some random thoughts:

Two acting awards are locked down: Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain and Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez. No one else has a chance. I would have liked to see Edward Norton’s incredible performance in A Complete Unknown take this prize. But his and Culkin‘s performances, while equal in skill, are wildly different in the characters they portray. Culkin gets to go from stillness to tears to outright insanity, while Norton has exquisitely internalized a softer and deeper character. Both deserve the award, the Academy loves big and energetic performances. Yet Norton is a treasure who has done a deep character dive that I thought he was incapable of. I hope he gets his due soon.

Zoe Saldaña is a shoe-in for her work in Emilia Pérez, but TBH, all the nominees did work worthy of the award. Not one weak link in this incredible chain: Monica Barbara (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (my favorite for The Brutalist) and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave).

Best Actor: Hmmm. It looked like Adrian Brody was a pretty sure thing for The Brutalist, and his performance has a huge range, with highs and lows that the Academy loves.  He is extraordinary in the film, but he has already won for The Pianist, and the Academy might (might) have been affected by the recent momentum for Timothée Chalamet for his incarnation of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. A few months ago, I was rooting for Ralph Fiennes to get the award for his quietly intense and precise performance in Conclave. But for no reason I can figure out, I’m hoping for Chalamet and still thinking it’s going to be Brody.

Actress: It looked like it was going to be Mikey Madison for Anora a few months ago. But now I think it will be Demi Moore. But Moore has two things going for her aside from the quality of her performance. One, she has a narrative as an actress and a human being that the Academy loves. Also, she is up against Cynthia Erivo for Wicked, who has won almost nothing outside of a musical category, and a group of actresses starring in foreign language films. I think the foreign language actresses might cancel each other out, putting Moore on top.

I can’t help but guffaw at the Academy for its nomination of Karla Sofia Cascón and its aftermath. I could hear the backslapping and virtue signaling from here in upstate New York when the Academy nominated Cascón in the Best Actress category, congratulating the actor on a good performance while simultaneously nominating for the first time a (yes, I’m saying it) a biological male in the Best Actress category. Cascón is a “trans woman” and the film is about a trans woman, so it seemed a perfect fit for today’s Academy to celebrate the film and its central performance. But then there came the revelation of all the controversial tweets Cascón released a few years ago. Now the actor is persona non grata and hasn’t attended recent award shows that have the actor nominated. But apparently we will see Cascón at the Oscars, where the actor will surely be awkwardly celebrated from the stage at some point.

 Thanks to those who have kept reading this….

Animated Feature Film. I just have a question: Will Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl win after Flow and The Wild Robot cancel each other out? Or will Inside Out 2’s massive grosses sway the voters?

Dune: Part Two is an extraordinary film whose earlier release in the year will likely limit its awards. But it should win some technical awards: perhaps Best Cinematography (though The Brutalist may well take this one). Same for Production Design, which I think Dune will win as The Brutalist, Conclave and Wicked duke it out. I thought Sound would clearly go to Dune, and it still might. But three of the other nominees are strong contenders as well  (A Complete Unknown, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked. Visual Effects: Dune better win.

The Screenplay awards double as an award for the actual writing as well as for an entire film that won’t win Best Picture. Adapted Screenplay: This is the Academy’s chance to anoint Conclave. Original Screenplay: Probably Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain. The Academy loves giving actors this award (can you say Matt Damon and Ben Affeck?), and it is a deep but uncomplicated script that is as worthy to win as its competitors in this category.

The Brutalist’s score is extraordinary, and it should win Best Score.

In the “who cares? Category, I nominate “Best Song”.

Oh, yeah, Best Picture and Best Director. No obvious leader here. For me, it’s a duel between The Brutalist and Anora for both categories. But has anyone reading this even seen these films? Asking for a friend….

Of course, all the categories I’ve left out here are full of films made by hard-working and talented people. But most haven’t captured the public’s interest, and I haven’t had the time or inclination to see all of them.

Of course I’ll watch the show, but I have to quote Jesse Eisenberg as Mark Zuckerburg in The Social Network as I watch: “You have part of my attention—you have the minimum amount.”