Risen

Risen is a fascinating film in what it gets right, and its major strength is its main weakness.

It’s the story of Clavius (Joseph Fiennes), a Roman tribune assigned to find Jesus’ dead body after it’s been assumed that his followers have stolen it. It’s in the tradition of The Robe, Barabbas, and of course, the all-time Oscar champ, Ben-Hur. It’s the Christ story from the perspective of the unbeliever.

What’s near-impossible to do in this cynical age is to present something clear, especially if it has to do with faith. The film, without any degree of “preaching to the choir,” presents the story that the Bible lays out: Jesus was crucified, buried, and rose again. Some of the political and religious leaders of the day conspired to promote the story that Jesus’ body was simply stolen, and that he never rose at all. Yet he appeared, especially to his disciples, several times, and was ultimately taken to heaven after giving them a commission to go out and make disciples. It’s all there. It’s not presented mysteriously, nor is it presented in a way that could be read any number of ways. According to the film, these things occurred.

Of course that makes the film something of a Rorschach test. As a believer, I was choked up several times at the depiction of events that resonate intellectually and emotionally. Those who don’t believe these things occurred historically may find the same scenes foolish, or perhaps borderline cheesy—though the film keeps any possible cinematic cheese to a minimum.

Risen’s strength is that it’s somewhat objective and straightforward in its presentation of Jesus and his actions. This isn’t the soft haze of a De Mille classic, or the rousing orchestral strings of a mid-50’s epic. Since historical truth is at the center of the main character’s quest—What really happened with Jesus after he died?—the film takes pains to present events with a kind of casual realism.

The film is more PG Son of God than R-rated Passion of the Christ, and the presentation of violence is worthy of study by other filmmakers. There is a great deal more violence suggested than actually presented, a rare triumph for any film attempting this. While not reducing the significance of the Biblical events depicted, the film also keeps a lid on the traditional religious visual and aural trappings associated with powerful Biblical events and keeps things relatively simple and direct, and at something of a cool distance. Director Kevin Reynolds (Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves, Waterworld, and TV’s Hatfields & McCoys) hasn’t done a feature in a decade, and shows he still has the ability to present a strong narrative in a place and time different from our own.

While the cinematic distance works, and works well, for the depiction of miracles and other spiritual manifestations, it doesn’t work as well for the main story. This is the story of a military man searching for the truth, [spoiler alert], beginning with deep cynicism and ending up believing. Fiennes (Shakespeare in Love) can be an intense and deeply emotional actor. He’s always the former here, but isn’t allowed to be the latter. Of course, as a military man, his character is self-contained and personally disciplined. But as he continues his spiritual journey, we are kept at the same cool distance as we are from the miracles. We are allowed to see his story, but not get deeply involved in it. Many times the camera is at a distance that shows us the ancient buildings and strengthens the sense of place, but that same distance keeps us watching Clavius instead of identifying with him. Fiennes is capable of the emotional moments necessary to do that, but the script and direction keep him at a distance from us.

The disciples are generally presented well, with one exception. Batholomew (Stephen Hagan) is shown as something of a goofy early-‘70s hippie. And while enthusiasm and joy are understandable in context, this interpretation is just too much. It ventures into Bartholomew and Jesus’ Excellent Adventure territory.

The depiction of Jesus, however, is a small miracle (pun intended). The casting finally eschews the traditional American vision and gives us an actor who is very similar to what current anthropologists think Jesus might have looked like. He is subdued, but strong. There is more Jesus here than in Ben-Hur, and less than in Passion of the Christ. Jesus is a supporting character within the film, and that cool distance that the film brings to the miracles extends to the presentation of Jesus. There is a great challenge in presenting Christ as the Son of God, and the film generally succeeds there. He is holy, to be sure, but as real as he is holy.

There is one great moment in the film, and it may be the most successful in connecting good filmmaking with the heart of the faith story we’re experiencing. (Skip this paragraph if you’re going to see the film.) Clavius has been looking for Jesus’ disciples, hoping that he’ll eventually find out the plot to kidnap the body, locate it, and get Pilate off his back. In one of his searches, he breaks into a room of hiding disciples, and we feel a combination of success (he found what he was looking for!) and dread (oh, no, the disciples have been discovered!). Then as Clavius looks around the room at the strange faces, he eventually comes upon one he recognizes, the man he saw dead on the cross just a few days before. It’s a stunning, lovely moment, with equal parts discovery and disbelief—the perfect beginning of a serious journey of faith.

The film could use more connection with its main character. But what it gets right outweighs what it lacks. It’s a valuable contribution to the genre of the religious film and in parts, an excellent demonstration of how to present the impossible.

 

 

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2016 Oscar Report

 

It’s true—the Oscar telecast is getting less and less interesting each year. There are many reasons for that, which we won’t get into here. But last night’s wasn’t the worst. It was saved by a controversy and several surprise—even shocking—wins.

As host, Chris Rock was a relatively equal opportunity offender, and that worked well last night. Perhaps the best line of the night was Rock saying that yes, it wasn’t fair that Will Smith wasn’t nominated for Best Actor for Concussion (a notion up for discussion), but that it also wasn’t fair that he was paid 20 million dollars for Wild Wild West. In some ways, this says it all in terms of the #OscarsSoWhite “controversy.” Institutional racism is an issue that permeates our society, it’s true. And… what America saw last night, for the most part, was wildly over-privileged people—of every color—swelling with self-importance and nearly putting their shoulders out of joint patting themselves so vigorously on the back.

One of the great surprises was the choice of Spotlight for Best Picture. Given The Revenant’s momentum and the predictions of the official prognosticators, this was a bit of a surprise. Spotlight wasn’t my official prediction, but it was my choice, and I hope the win means that more folks will see this excellent film. Its social significance, apart from its excellence, will keep this as a classic.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the night was Mark Rylance’s win for Best Supporting Actor for Bridge of Spies. This was “supposed” to be Sylvester Stallone’s nostalgic win for his best career performance in Creed, as well as a vote for a film by a black director starring a young black star. The category was stuffed with great performances, and any could have legitimately won. But Rylance was the best of the actors (and that’s saying a lot!), and gave a subtle, genuinely beautiful performance that helped ground that film. Since he is an acting legend, especially on stage and across the pond, I assumed he’d win an Oscar “eventually.” I had no idea that eventually would be last night.

The other big surprise was the Best Visual Effects award for Ex Machina, a relatively little-seen film that was probably best known for Alicia Vikander’s other great 2015 performance, and one that most Oscar voters must have had in mind as they voted her the Best Supporting Actress award for her work in The Danish Girl.

The many awards racked up by Mad Max: Fury Road wasn’t a surprise, except for costumes, which to my mind just got caught up in the coattails of the many technical awards given to the film. There were at least three other films that could have won that award, and would have deserved it.

That big exhale sound you might have heard last night or this morning was America’s sigh of relief that Leo has finally won his Oscar. No one “deserves” an award just because they have been nominated X number of times, but it was still fun to see him win.

One happy surprise was the win for Sam Smith’s and Jimmy Nape’s Spectre song, “Writing’s on the Wall.” While everyone writing in advance seemed to want to see Lady Gaga win for “’Til It Happens to You,” and the performance of that song turned into A MOMENT, it didn’t win, and the better song did. I completely support the sentiment of The Hunting Ground and its song, “’Til It Happens to You,” but it was a bit much to upholster what was to be a performance of the song with layers and layers of emotional meaning; besides, I was afraid Lady Gaga was going to spontaneously combust at certain points during her performance. I’m glad she’s OK.

Whether he deserved it this year or not—always a question with career awards—composing legend Ennio Morricone (The Hateful Eight) finally got his long-awaited Oscar. And his homage to fellow legend John Williams was a moment of true class. Google him and see what great work he’s done.

History was made last night in the Best Cinematography category. Four times earlier in the Academy’s history, a man has won this award two years in a row. The Revenant’s Emmanuel Lubezki won his third in a row last night. He won last year for Birdman, or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) and the year before for Gravity. His work on these three wildly different films attests to his talent. He just passed into legend last night, and he has years of great work before him.

The Revenant’s director, Alejandro Iñárritu, made his own mark in film history by winning his second Best Director Oscar last night, a year after winning it for Birdman. He’s busy at the moment with the television series, “The One Percent,” so it’s unlikely he’ll repeat next year.

There were some things that worked well, and many that didn’t. The Star Wars creatures bombed, as did Stacey Dash, and the whole Girl Scout Cookie thing. There are so many ways the telecast could be improved. But for some unknown reason, they haven’t asked me. Maybe someday I’ll offer my ideas on this site. In the meantime, I’ll watch, be surprised, be disappointed, and still be unable to look away.

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Hail, Caesar!

I so wanted Hail, Caesar! to be as good as its trailer. It had all the ingredients that would delight this film nerd: references to movie situations and characters that I would get and most everyone else wouldn’t (appeal to pride there), beautiful lush cinematography by the great Roger Deakins, direction by the Coen Brothers, one of my favorite directors (or directorial teams, to be accurate), and a musical number that pays homage to the kind of musicals I’m writing a book about.

What could go wrong? You have George Clooney, the underrated Josh Brolin, Scarlett Johansson, Ralph Fiennes, Tilda Swinton times two, Frances McDormand, Channing Tatum doing some legitimate dancing, Jonah Hill and a variety of talented character actors.

A great topic—Hollywood in the early fifties, at its most bloated. All these talented people. Two Oscar-winning directors. But it just doesn’t fall together. The main delight comes from all the different side stories—which is exactly the reason this film ultimately doesn’t work. Too many ideas given too much weight:

  • A subplot about the communist threat (after all, this was at the height of the House Un-American Activities Committee paranoia)
  • An Esther Williams-like swimmer/diver who gets pregnant
  • A singing cowboy who is shoved into an elegant costume drama for which he is woefully unprepared
  • A Gene Kelly-like dancer who turns out to be somewhat different from what we expect
  • Tilda Swinton playing, essentially, Hedda Hopper AND Louella Parsons, the Hollywood gossip columnists of the day
  • A kidnapping of a major male movie star, who is making a Biblical epic on the scale of The Robe or Ben Hur.

The reason I put that last plotline, which the trailer highlights, at the end of the list of subplots because that is what it is basically is. The real “story, “ if there is a central story, is the story of Eddie Mannix (Brolin), who is a fixer for Capital Pictures. (The character is obviously named after the real M-G-M fixer named Eddie Mannix, who was far more dangerous and disreputable than his cinematic namesake. The real Mannix may have been responsible for the death of his wife and may well have had an involvement with the death of TV “Superman” George Reeves.) This film’s Mannix is a Catholic confess-aholic whose main vice is apparently smoking. Brolin’s character “fixes” a number of problems for his studio, but is nowhere near as dark as the real Mannix.

Mannix’s struggle with religion is perhaps one of the most fascinating and disappointing aspects of Hail, Caesar! The film opens aurally with heavy religious music and visually with a crucified Christ on the cross. As in several of their previous films, the Coen Brothers aren’t afraid to go into some depth on religious and spiritual issues. But while there is real humor behind the discussion of four different religious leaders on how they respond to the Hail, Caesar! script (the film doubles as the name of the Biblical film that the Clooney character is starring in), the film settles for superficial humor at the expense of some resonance that might have helped the film.

Though the Mannix story is first presented as central, there are simply too many rabbit trails and subplots that are given too much bulk. A film going after (in the lightest comedic sense, of course) Old Hollywood has a lot at its disposal for anything from satire to ridicule, but the casting of major stars and the amount of time given to the subplots makes this a film that is less than the sum of its parts.

What a film like this needs to work well is forward momentum and tone. Mannix’s story promises to be the central thread, but it becomes the main subplot instead. We lose momentum constantly when we veer off into side stories with big stars doing a great job creating what amounts to films-within-the-film. Even Jonah Hill, in the film for a moment, is more of an amusing distraction than an addition.

The film scores a little higher on tone, which is a high-wire act in a film that’s serious and not at the same time. Most of the actors do well in this regard. Clooney is back in his goofus mode that worked so well in his earlier Coen collaboration, O Brother, Where Are Thou? Brolin keeps things on the ground with a solid, once-removed-from-reality performance that could have held the film together with a more integrated screenplay. Scarlett Johansson as “Esther Williams” is both too much and too little. She brings such authority to her character on the screen that we want more of her story, but we don’t get it. What should have been something of an aside becomes something of a major plot point that we end up missing.

Probably the best performance in the film aside from Brolin’s is Alden Ehrenreich (Beautiful Creatures, Blue Jasmine), who plays Hobie Doyle, the Gene Autry-like singing cowboy. Again, there’s both too much and too little of him and his story, but as a fresh face and someone who seems to nail the acting tone the Coens were looking for, he is a delight in every scene.

Bottom line: There are too many good actors given too much time to flesh out their characters and broaden their subplots. This plays havoc with the attempted tone of lightness and energy, and eventually pulls the film into too many directions, slowing and weighing it down in the process.

There are joys, of course. Johansson’s character is a hoot. Ehrenreich’s is a joy to have on screen. And yes, Tatum can dance and even sing, though what should have been a quick and delightful scene goes from great to fey to gay, with a scene extension that wipes out the happy memories of the previous few minutes. Then what happens to Tatum’s character is beautifully photographed and overdone in both direction and plot, sending the film in yet another amusing/confusing direction.

With all the inside jokes and the real satire of overstuffed historical epics, the Red Scare subplots and substitutes for real stars such as Esther Williams, Gene Kelly and Carmen Miranda, this film provides the fodder for many a film studies paper. It could have been a much better picture. It could have continued the Brothers’ seeming genuine interest in religious/spiritual issues. It could have made either more or less of the communist/capitalist theme, which again was both too much and too light. It could easily have done with lesser stars and a central plot that held the side stories together. As it is, it’s genuinely funny at times for those with a strong understanding of Hollywood history and occasionally amusing for the rest.

Channing, keep up the hard work. Alden, we want to see more of you on screen. Scarlett, is there anything you can’t do? Josh, you seem to always be in someone’s shadow (Clooney, Sean Penn, Jeff Bridges, Javier Bardem, Barbra Streisand); you’ll get your big shiny role someday. Joel and Ethan: Now that this is out of your system, don’t abandon the idea. Just get a stronger central story, forget about all the stars willing to work with you, and try this once more.

 

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2016 Oscar Predictions

Here are my predictions for tomorrow’s Oscars. Remember, these are not my preferences, just my predictions!

Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Note: Spotlight and The Big Short cancel one another out, and the epic wins.

Best Director
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Note: First time in over 50 years that a director wins two years in a row.

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Note: My preference is Ronan, but she’ll win eventually.

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Note: Nostalgia will triumph with Stallone, but this is one of the great collections of acting performances ever.

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room

Best Cinematography
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Note: This will be three years in a row for this cinematographer!

Best Costume Design
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

 Note: A very tough call here!

Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Best Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Note: This is a career award more than anything else.

Best Song
Fifty Shades of Grey – Earned It
The Hunting Ground – Til it Happens to You
Racing Extinction – Manta Ray
Spectre – Writing’s on the Wall
Youth – Simple Song #3

Note: Are they voting just to see Lady Gaga win?

Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
 

Best Visual Effects
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Note: Another tough call.

Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

 Note: This one is as predictable as Best Actor.

Best Documentary Feature
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Best Foreign Language Film
Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War

Best Animated Short
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Best Documentary Short
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom

Best Live Action Short
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
Shok
Stutterer

We’ll see how I do!

Note: Again, this was done with GREAT assistance from my Oscar ballot partner, Clint Morgan!

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2016 Oscar Nominations—Best Director

This category may well be the hardest to predict—with the possible exception of Best Picture. It’s no longer a given that the two categories are joined at the hip. Ang Lee won Best Director for Brokeback Mountain a decade ago, when Crash won Best Picture. More recently, the technical achievement of a film has won it the Best Director award, while the Best Picture award went elsewhere.

Alfonso Cuarón won Best Director for Gravity two years ago, while Best Picture went to 12 Years a Slave. A year before that, Ang Lee won Best Director for Life of Pi, and Best Picture went to Argo. Both director wins were for technical triumphs, rewards for conquering a mountain of problems to pull off the impossible.

Last year’s winner, Alejandro Iñárritu, won for the dazzling Birdman or (the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance). That was a great film with great performances, stunning cinematography, and a great story. If Iñárritu wins again for The Revenant, he will be the first director to win back-to-back directing Oscars since Joseph Mankiewicz in 1949 and 1950, when he won for A Letter to Three Wives and All About Eve. (Incidentally, he also won Oscars those same years for his screenplays for those films.) 

The other nominees are:

Lenny Abrahamson—Room

Tom McCarthy—Spotlight

Adam McKay—The Big Short

George Miller—Mad Max: Fury Road

This one’s a tough call, and there is a lot of love for George Miller’s work in Mad Max. But with all the nominations for that film, and with some technical awards all but locked up, that’s probably enough love from the Academy for Miller. Also, Room, Spotlight and The Big Short are focused, intense, tight dramas. Their strength is their focus, not their scope.

The Revenant has scope to beat the band, reminding at times of a grayer, bluer, colder version of Lawrence of Arabia. It’s the BIG picture of the year, and features an Oscar-winning central performance, plus one Oscar-worthy supporting performance. There is nothing else like it this year, and with all its faults (its reach surely exceeded its grasp), it’s nevertheless an amazing piece of film.

Ordinarily, one might say that because a director won the year before, it’s unlikely he’ll win the next. But when the two films are so very different, and so very good, it shines a new and fresh light on the director that the year’s previous win can’t dim.

Best Director Prediction: Alejandro Iñárritu for The Revenant.

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2016 Oscar Nominations: The “Minor” Sure-Thing Awards

To those in the so-called “minor” awards—those outside the top six—the Oscar is anything but minor. But to most folks outside of the industry, the awards outside of the acting, directing and best picture awards are of somewhat less interest.

Today, I’m addressing a small handful of important but less high-visibility awards. They are also those that I am pretty sure of at this point.

Best Original Screenplay nominations are:

Matt Charman, Joel & Ethan Coen—Bridge of Spies

Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley—Inside Out

Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer—Spotlight

Alex Garland—Ex Machina

Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Savidge and Alan Wenkus—Straight Outta Compton

 Without addressing those that I don’t think will win, I’ll just go right to the winner:

Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight.

Spotlight intelligently addresses a difficult and complex topic with grace and sensitivity, as well as placing the issues in the context of a gripping and suspenseful story. It contains layer upon layer of fascinating sub-stories that are smartly brought together at the end but with a conclusion that is satisfying and disturbing at the same time.

Best Adapted Screenplay nominations are:

Emma Donoghue—Room

Drew Goddard—The Martian

Nick Hornby—Brooklyn

Adam McKay and Charles Randolph—The Big Short

Phyllis Nagy—Carol

And the winner will be:

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short

The Big Short intelligently addresses a difficult and complex topic with humor and attitude, as well as placing the issues in the context of a gripping and suspenseful story. It contains layer upon layer of fascinating sub-stories that are smartly brought together at the end but with a conclusion that is satisfying and disturbing at the same time.

Best Animated Feature nominations are:

Anomalisa

Boy and the World

Inside Out

When Marnie Was There

Shaun the Sheep

Two things first: I thought when Anomalisa was released to such positive reviews that it might provide an upset. I certainly don’t think that anymore. And…I’m glad that The Good Dinosaur didn’t get nominated because it was pretty bad.

The winner will be: Inside Out. Perhaps the best Pixar movie ever. For a “classically” animated film, it’s head and shoulders above all the others like it.

And since you most likely stay up nights worried about what film will win best sound mixing and best sound editing, relax! Both are going to Mad Max: Fury Road.

Other “sure” things:

Best Documentary Feature: Amy

Best Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul

The other categories? Too hard to make a solid call!

The next two days: Best Director and Best Picture.

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2016 Oscar Nominations—Best Actress

 

Here are the nominations:

Cate Blanchett-Carol

Brie Larson-Room

Jennifer Lawrence-Joy

Charlotte Rampling—45 Years

Saoirse Ronen-Brooklyn

This category is a bit of a yawn, though it may have set a record for the shortest names of the films they are associated with. The nomination list is almost a lazy one. There are the obvious nominees (Larson and Ronen), the old favorites (Blanchett and Lawrence) and the nod to the old professional that it is time to honor because of a great performance (Rampling).

Rampling is a legend, but more on the other side of the Atlantic than here. She’s been a star since the “mod scene” in Britain in the 1960s, but has a career of sensitive, brave performances since then. The nomination is the Academy’s version of a Lifetime Achievement Award, and with her recent controversial comments regarding the #OscarsSoWhite issue, she doesn’t stand a chance times two. This is simply the Academy saying, “We appreciate your career.”

Cate Blanchett has already won two Oscars, and looked like a possible winner again. But after a flurry of awards at the start of the awards seasons, Carol’s momentum has become as evanescent as the film’s tone. It’s a good performance, but just not strong enough to snag a win over Larson and Ronen.

Jennifer Lawrence’s nod for Joy seems like a filler, or the good performance that rounds out the other four more sure nominations. She got good reviews, but again, it’s not strong enough to even come close to winning. It’s a sign of the love the Academy has for her—one win, four nominations, and she’s just 25.

Saoirse Ronen gave the most touching, subtle performance of the year in Brooklyn, and it will become a model of understatement and beauty. That’s the problem—it’s the finest performance of the year, in both senses of the word. It’s the best of the year, IMHO, and “fine” as opposed to “coarse.” Her eyes rather than her words often tell the story, and to watch her develop her sense of confidence over the course of the film is to see a person blossom and unfold like a flower. It will likely be studied for years. Ronen is one of our finest young actresses and promises years of acting delight.

This year’s winner is going to be Brie Larson for Room. It’s not quite on the level of Ronen’s in Brooklyn, but the story is more dramatic, and Larson gets to have the “big moments” of stress, anger and frustration that makes for a more attention-getting performance. It’s a very good performance, to be sure. It’s just that Ronen’s is a step above.

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2016 Oscar Nominations—Best Actor

This year’s nominees are making for a lot of head-scratching in Hollywood. Best Picture and Best Director nominations are presenting a big challenge for predictors. The one “lock” this year, however, is the Best Actor category.

Nominees are:

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Matt Damon, The Martian

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Bryon Cranston’s nomination is a kind of “We loved, loved, loved you in Breaking Bad, so welcome to the movies, and you did a really solid job here in Trumbo.” Not a snowball’s chance in Hades for a win.

Matt Damon, who should have won the Oscar for The Informant!, wasn’t even nominated for that film. This is a great American actor who is so pleasant and sympathetic that we almost don’t notice that he create a myriad of complex and fascinating characters in a variety of genres. He’ll win someday, but this is a nod to his likability, this ability to carry a film almost single-handedly, and to the film itself. Sorry, Matt. You’ll get your Oscar for acting at some point.

Michael Fassbender’s nomination is a bit of a surprise—not because he didn’t deserve it, but because most folks thought this finely-acted film would be lost in the shuffle. Whatever buzz it had seemed to be nearly gone by nomination time. So it’s a joy to see this future Oscar-winner get a nomination. But it’s not Michael’s year yet.

Eddie Redmayne just won this award last year for The Theory of Everything. It’s not impossible to win two years in a row; both Spencer Tracy and Tom Hanks have done it. But while the first wave of admiration for the film included both Redmayne and Alicia Vikander, most of the enduring love has been aimed in her direction. One, it’s not a strong enough performance to overcome the reluctance to grant the award to an actor two years in a row. Two, it’s not his year.

It’s Leo’s year. Yes, he gave an amazing performance. It’s a triumph of endurance, to be sure, as well as a feat of acting skill to hold together a film of his epic scope with so few words. The sheer difficulty of pulling this all off is in Leo’s favor. But the bottom line is that it’s his time. He could have won from as far back as when he was 14 years old in What’s Eating Gilbert Grape. Everyone agrees that it’s award his year, and there is no stronger performance that could threaten his win. He will win, people will stand, people will clap for a long time. You can count on it.

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2016 Oscar Nominations—Best Supporting Actress

It’s certainly not the “best” performance that always wins—or even gets nominated. There are always other considerations that go into winning the award. For instance, a performance night be the crowning achievement of one’s acting career, and that might put someone into the win column when there are other, better performances in that category.

It might be that it’s just a really great role with a good fit, as J.K. Simmons in Whiplash. Or it may be a new discovery making his/her mark in a film that shows off one’s talents well, as with Audrey Hepburn in Roman Holiday. Or it could be an example of buzz and momentum. Some films have great buzz at the beginning of the Oscar season, but lose it after a while, and a performance gets lost, or at least less attention is paid. And some films seem to gather momentum at either the right time or the wrong time, and someone might win on the coattails of a film that is peaking in interest at voting time.

This year, the Best Supporting Actress category include the following

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

I was excited when I heard that Jennifer Jason Leigh was nominated for The Hateful Eight, though as all my film students know by now, Tarantino is not my favorite director. But Leigh is an accomplished veteran that many thought would have won an Oscar by now. She’s pulled back a bit in recent years, and this is as strong a comeback as any this year. But the film didn’t make the mark many thought it would, and it looks as if Leigh’s award is the nomination itself.

 

Rooney Mara in Carol gives an ethereal performance in a film that’s already too twee and precious. It’s solid work, but nearly floats off the screen. Again, the nomination is the award.

Rachel McAdams’ nomination is a bit of a mystery, unless the Academy wanted to balance the genders by granting a female nomination next to Mark Ruffalo’s in Spotlight. She’s very good, but so is everyone in the cast. The nomination is a nod to the entire cast, which is one of the strongest of the year. McAdams has been thought of as a strong rom-com actress, and hasn’t been considered an Oscar contender until just now. The nomination is her reward, and Spotlight’s.

Kate Winslet is already a multiple nominee (seven nominations, including this year’s) and relatively recent Oscar winner (for The Reader). And she won the Golden Globe for this performance in Steve Jobs. But her Oscar win, and the fact that at her young age, she will likely be a future Oscar winner at some point, probably puts her out of the winner’s circle. But this could be the dark horse performance that surprises everyone.

Alicia Vikander is the girl of the moment. She is nominated as Best Supporting Actress this year for The Danish Girl, but many think of it as a lead role, which often works in the nominee’s favor. Vikander also turned in a star-making performance in this year’s Ex Machina, which recalls Diane Keaton’s win for Annie Hall, which to many of us was a win for her work in that film as well as her dark dramatic work that same year in Looking for Mr. Goodbar. Somewhat as in the early years of the Academy, which recognized an actor’s work in more than one film in a given year, there might be at least an unspoken recognition for Vikander’s work in the two films, which could easily put her over the edge. She has won several awards for each of these films this year, and as the It Girl right now, this looks like her year.

Should Win: Kate Winslet or Alicia Vikander

Will Win: Alicia Vikander

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2016 Oscar Nominees—Best Supporting Actor

It’s that time of year again, when Hollywood looks at itself, and works hard to look objective. It’s also a great time for Hollywood physical therapists, as the Oscars ceremonies are a great time for patting oneself vigorously on the back.

I’ll be putting my predictions out this week category by category.

Today, it’s the Best Supporting Actor Category, one of the richest and deepest in years. The nominees are:

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Thoughts on each one:

Bale was nothing short of magnificent in The Big Short, and is a much greater actor than is generally supposed, though he deservedly won an Oscar for The Fighter. He plays a difficult character here, something of a hero, but not exactly accessible. It’s part of a funky, bumpy tapestry that makes up the film. It “sticks out” in the way that many Oscar-winning roles do, but it gets lost in the energy, themes, and editing of the film. Besides, Bale has his Oscar and is young enough to earn at least one more.

Tom Hardy is no less magnificent in The Revenant, but most of the attention has gone to Leonardo DiCaprio as the lead. Hardy is almost unrecognizable, changing his voice, look and way of moving completely for a new character. He’s so good you almost don’t notice it. He could win and I’d be happy indeed.

Mark Ruffalo always tends to “stick out” in his performances, as he has an acting rhythm all his own. He is, in many way, the heart and soul of Spotlight, and perhaps was nominated as much for that as for his excellent performance. This is a great example of “the reward is the nomination.” He doesn’t stand a chance of winning, but the nomination is well deserved.

Mark Rylance is probably the greatest actor in the list, though you might not know it from his lack of fame (in film) and the subtlety of his performance in Bridge of Spies. This three-time Tony Award winner is considered one of the greatest living actors, especially by his peers, and judging by his stage and television work, can do almost anything. Once again, thank you, Great Britain. He won’t win, but it’s good to see him recognized for his film work.

Sylvester Stallone gives his greatest performance in Creed. He’s done some real acting in the past, but nothing that combines the Rocky legend with touching, vulnerable, solid acting. He’s a revelation here, and helps add gravity (believe it or not) to an already good film. Sentiment will lean in his direction. And those that see finer acting in the other categories will likely cancel themselves out, as there is nothing in the other four that rises high above the rest.

Should Win: Tom Hardy or Christian Bale

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone

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